Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Toronto or Wait Until 2027?

1. Toronto Home Prices in Late 2026: Do Buyers Have Negotiating Power?

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the GTA recorded 5,603 home sales in October 2026, a decline of 7.9% from October 2025.

The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7% year over year. TRREB's MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was also down 4.3%.

These are GTA-wide figures, not numbers for every Toronto neighbourhood or property type. Both the average price and benchmark edged higher from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

What does this mean for buyers? There may be opportunities to negotiate on price, conditions or closing dates. But a home that has been sitting on the market isn't automatically a bargain.

Before recommending an offer, I would want to review recent comparable sales, the home's condition, competing properties and the seller's asking price.

A good purchase is about buying the right property at a reasonable price, not simply getting the biggest discount from the asking price.

Source: TRREB October 2026 Market Report

2026 vs. 2027: What Are the Housing Market Forecasts Saying?

One question I frequently discuss with buyers is whether prices will be higher or lower next year.

Forecasts can provide useful perspective, but we need to be careful about what they actually measure. A Canada-wide price forecast is not the same as a forecast for a detached home in Scarborough or a condominium in downtown Toronto.

Sources: TRREB | Bank of Canada | CREA October Forecast | Ontario Fall Economic Statement | CMHC Housing Supply Report. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.

2. GTA Housing Inventory Heading Into 2027

At the end of October 2026, there were 25,098 active listings across TRREB's market area, approximately 10% fewer than a year earlier. New listings totalled 14,173, down 11.9%.

Although buyers still have properties to choose from, we shouldn't automatically assume that waiting until next year will bring more selection.

In my experience, the number of listings isn't nearly as important as the number of homes that genuinely meet your needs.

If you're looking for a particular school area, a bungalow in Toronto or the GTA, a larger lot or a property with a suitable basement layout, your actual choices may be much more limited than the overall inventory suggests.

My advice is to watch the market even if you're not quite ready to make an offer. You'll become familiar with asking prices, property conditions and what actually sells.

You can also browse current Toronto and GTA MLS® listings to see what's available in your preferred neighbourhoods.

3. Should You Wait for Mortgage Rates to Come Down in 2027?

This is probably one of the biggest considerations for buyers today.

On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada increased its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%. The Bank also indicated that further increases could be necessary, depending on inflation and economic developments.

That doesn't mean every mortgage rate will move by exactly the same amount. Variable mortgage rates generally respond to changes in lenders' prime rates, while fixed mortgage rates are influenced by bond yields and other lending costs.

Here's how I approach this with buyers: before worrying about where rates might be next year, let's find out what your actual mortgage payments would be today.

Ask a mortgage professional to review different rate and payment scenarios. Make sure your budget would still be manageable if expenses increased or your mortgage renewed at a higher rate.

I wouldn't recommend buying a house based on the assumption that interest rates will fall.

Source: Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026

4. The Canadian Economy and Global Events Still Matter

Real estate doesn't operate separately from the rest of the economy.

Canada continues to face uncertainty involving inflation, energy prices and trade relations with the United States. The Bank of Canada's October outlook highlighted these factors as important risks.

Employment matters just as much. Statistics Canada reported that Ontario's unemployment rate reached 7.3% in October 2026.

When people are uncertain about their jobs or future income, they're naturally more cautious about taking on a large mortgage.

For me, this comes back to a simple principle: your own financial stability matters more than any market prediction.

If your employment is secure and your budget is comfortable, you may be in a stronger position to consider buying. If your income is uncertain, waiting may be the more responsible choice.

Sources: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report | Statistics Canada

5. Detached Homes vs. Toronto Condos: Understanding the Different Markets

One mistake I encourage buyers to avoid is looking at the GTA average price and assuming every property has increased or decreased by that percentage.

In October 2026, the average selling price for detached homes in the City of Toronto was down approximately 1.2% year over year, while the average price of Toronto condo apartments was down approximately 5.6%.

Those differences matter, but even property-type averages don't tell the whole story.

A family home in Scarborough, a Toronto condo and a detached house in Pickering can have completely different buyer demand, ownership costs and resale considerations.

Having lived in Highland Creek for many years, I know how much the details of a property can affect its value. Lot size, street location, ravine proximity, renovations and basement condition can all make a difference.

For example, when helping buyers compare Scarborough bungalows for sale, I look closely at recent neighbourhood sales, usable living space, lot characteristics and the condition of the home rather than relying on a citywide price average.

That's why I prefer to compare properties that have actually sold in the same neighbourhood and would realistically compete with the home you're considering.

Source: TRREB October 2026 Market Watch

6. Buying a Home Is About More Than the Mortgage Payment

Before making an offer, I encourage buyers to look at their complete cost of ownership.

That includes the mortgage, property taxes, home insurance, utilities, maintenance and, where applicable, condominium fees.

You also need to budget for closing costs. In the City of Toronto, buyers generally pay municipal land transfer tax in addition to Ontario's provincial land transfer tax, subject to applicable exemptions and rebates.

Waiting may give you time to increase your down payment, reduce debt or build a larger emergency fund. Those are meaningful benefits.

On the other hand, waiting also means continuing to pay for your current housing. If you're renting, compare those costs fairly with the actual costs of owning, remembering that not every dollar of a mortgage payment builds equity.

What matters is whether purchasing a home improves your long-term situation without putting unnecessary pressure on your finances.

Source: City of Toronto Land Transfer Tax Information

7. When Would I Recommend Waiting Until 2027?

I wouldn't encourage someone to rush into buying simply because prices have come down.

Waiting may make sense if:

• Your employment or income is uncertain.
• You need more time to save for a down payment and closing costs.
• You have expensive debts to pay down.
• Buying would leave you with very little emergency savings.
• Your family, work or location plans may change soon.
• You haven't found a home that fits your needs and budget.

There's an important difference between waiting a few weeks for the calendar to change to 2027 and waiting six or twelve months to improve your financial position.

If you decide to wait, give yourself a practical goal. It might be saving more money, improving your mortgage qualification or deciding which neighbourhood is right for you.

And if you're selling one home to buy another, I would review both transactions together. Your likely selling price, purchase price, mortgage costs, land transfer taxes and closing arrangements all affect the final decision.

8. When Does Buying a House in Toronto Now Make Sense?

I believe buying now can make sense when the numbers work and the property is genuinely suitable.

Before recommending that a buyer move forward, these are the things I would want us to be comfortable with:

• Your financing has been reviewed by a mortgage professional.
• The monthly ownership costs fit comfortably within your budget.
• The home suits your needs for the next several years.
• Recent comparable sales support the price.
• Appropriate inspections and legal due diligence have been considered.
• You can handle some market fluctuations without needing to sell immediately.

If those pieces are in place, I wouldn't automatically dismiss a suitable home just because we don't know whether prices will be slightly higher or lower next year.

But I also wouldn't suggest stretching your budget because someone predicts the market is about to rebound.

My Final Advice: Buy When You're Ready, Not Because of a Prediction

The Toronto and GTA real estate market is giving buyers some opportunities to compare properties and negotiate. At the same time, mortgage costs, employment uncertainty and changes in inventory mean there are still reasons to be cautious.

For me, the question isn't simply whether November 2026 is a better time to buy than spring 2027.

The more useful question is: Can we find a home that works for you financially, suits your lifestyle and represents reasonable value compared with recent sales?

If the answer is yes, buying now deserves serious consideration. If the answer is no, let's make a plan so you're in a better position when the right opportunity comes along.

That's the kind of conversation I prefer to have with my clients: practical, informed and without pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions About Buying in Toronto

Will Toronto house prices drop further in 2027?

It's possible, but nobody can predict that with certainty. Forecasts for Canada and Ontario suggest modest overall price growth in 2027, but Toronto neighbourhoods and property types may perform differently.

I recommend comparing recent local sales rather than relying on a province-wide forecast.

Should I wait for lower mortgage rates before buying?

I wouldn't make a buying decision based solely on the hope that rates will come down.

Speak with a mortgage professional about current rates, qualification requirements and different payment scenarios. If a lender offers a rate hold, ask about its duration and conditions.

Is this a good time to sell my condo and buy a house?

It can be, particularly if you're planning to upsize. If both your condo and the house you want have declined in value, the price difference between the two may be worth examining. But that isn't automatically the case.

I would compare your condo's likely net sale proceeds, mortgage balance, selling expenses, land transfer taxes and the cost of your next property.

Whether you're considering a house in Highland Creek, elsewhere in Scarborough or Pickering, the numbers need to work for your family.

What should first-time homebuyers consider?

Start with your mortgage qualification, down payment, closing costs and monthly ownership budget.

Check whether you qualify for applicable first-time homebuyer rebates or other programs, but confirm eligibility before including any savings in your budget.

The most important thing is to purchase a home that meets your needs without stretching your finances too far.

Is it better to buy now or wait another six months?

It depends on what those six months would change for you. If the extra time helps you save, pay down debt or find a better-suited home, waiting can be worthwhile.

If you're already financially prepared, there's also value in exploring today's listings and negotiating opportunities.

My approach is to evaluate each property on its merits rather than trying to time the market perfectly.